We invest so you can do the rest
It’s Super Stock Sunday!
In honor of the day, I wanted to talk about how value stocks might do in an inflationary environment.
First, let’s visit how the Tuttle Ventures Fundamental Portfolio has performed so far:
Positive Contributors:
The Mosiac Company, $MOS, the largest US producer of potash and phosphate fertilizer is up 19%, due to the structural imbalance in commodities I wrote about a month ago.
Negative Contributors:
Smith & Wesson Brands, $SWBI, manufacturing company is down -3%. In our view, this is due to a slowdown in firearm sales from recent highs. Our thesis hasn’t changed since writing about the company here which highlights that cashflow is strong despite a shift in demand.
As an optimist investor, we believe there are new opportunities in strong fundamental companies across the globe. I’m happy the way the portfolio has played into the value factor, even when it may not be as popular or exciting.
With inflation at 40 year highs, remember that all past declines look like an opportunity while all future declines look like a risk.
What if the markets of the 1970s played out again?
I’ve seen some research on this topic that uses U.S. data, and it provides some interesting insights. Here are assets ranked from best to worst, real returns, 1973-1981:
Gold, Emerging Market Stocks, Commodities (GSCI), US small cap stocks, TIPS (post dated)
— (below here negative returns)—
Cash, Foreign large cap stocks, REITs, Corporate Bonds, US large cap stocks, Bonds
As you can see, Gold, US small caps, and commodities (GSCI) did the best in terms of real returns. Bonds and US large cap stocks posted negative returns over the 8 year period.
It’s impossible to predict what the trend will be next, but the portfolio will continue to seek out the best in class super stocks to defend against inflation.
Latest update on Boxabl
Housing has unique advantages for developers who can deliver affordable options. Boxabl is an innovator, housing meets mass production with a affordable $50,000 home price tag. For current investors here’s an update:
Current factory production rate of 2 casitas per day
50+ casitas delivered thus far
Since the 10 for 1 stock split, current accredited investors can still purchase shares at $0.76 a share
Based on latest SEC filings, an IPO is being considered.
We have written extensively on Boxabl over the past two years, here and here. The latest preferred shares offering is still open to accredited investors.
That’s a wrap
Thank you for reading and I am grateful and humbled to be able to learn, grow and invest alongside you at Tuttle Ventures.
Don’t forget to follow Tuttle Ventures on Twitter, LinkedIn or Instagram.
Check out the website or some other work here.
Best,
Darin Tuttle, CFA
Founder & CIO
Tuttle Ventures, LLC
